Time For Predictions

So the big Republican tidal wave came in.  Not as big overall as they thought but still a very large House swing.  But they didn't touch the Senate and Harry Reid stayed in.  Add in the Tea Partiers who the Republican Establishment is assuming will fall in line and the Republicans will not likely pass any right-wing legislation.  I still don't really understand what is going on with the voters.  The economy was decimated by the deregulation of the corporate world and the shoddy work by the investment rating sector.  The Democrats have just now gotten some stability back in the system and are working to eliminate these problems.  We are back to economic growth and that is a great achievement.  Even if you had a crystal ball and did everything right, emerging from a true recession to solid job creation would take about 3 years and 6 months.  Normally closer to 4 1/2 years.  So this means that due to how severe the recession was we are looking at about mid year 2012 when stuff really heats back up.  But with our electorates short memory and unrealistic expectations tossed the Dems out and brought the old guard (in control when all the problems happened, voted out as the first signs of symptoms appeared, brought back in because the symptoms were still occuring) back.  So here are my predictions for 2 years from now.

I am proud of Boehner for saying that this wasn't a mandate but a second chance.  Thats true.  People are so sick of being jobless or severely underemployed, including me, that they tossed out reason and just voted for something different than they had right now.  Now I didn't vote for many conservatives (except for Colorado DA) but I will give them a chance to show they are actually working for the country.  What I have heard so far hasn't been promising.

First off, impeachment.  I have heard a few sprinklings of this.  Where does this come from?  You conservatives hate Obama so much you are trying to impeach him?  For what?  I have heard the stuff but it isn't anything that hurts the people, so stop your automatic witch hunts for all Democratic leaders and do what you were appointed for.  So my guess of the GOPs agenda for the coming period.  They know there is likely to be a good economy coming into view just about the time for the next elections. This will likely lead to the GOP upping its House control by 15, Senate will loose a few GOP and go more Democratic and Obama will win re-election.  Tons of people who did not vote in this election will show up in two years to re-elect Barrack and they will kick out some Senators for the GOP but will keep the GOP House thinking (as is usually correct) giving one party control over every branch is not good.  Sarah Palin will get the nomination from a growing Tea Party mania and she will get slaughtered by an electorate that is reactionary but not stupid.  They won't want someone no smarter than them in the White House.

So how about actual policy decisions?  Well the first thing they will do is push for an extension of Bush tax cuts for the Uber wealthy.  This is of course insane because it will continue to allow someone making $500 million a year to only pay 9% more than you if you earn about $90,000.  Why should they pay more?  Mostly because they are the ones who sit on the boards who decide to cut your wages, lay you off, or severely cut benefits every year to give you less and less and less a piece of the pie, while theirs explodes, especially in capital gains (money from investments) which they don't think should be touched at all.  Ok, i will bend some on Captial Gains.  How about the first $100,000 of each year isn't subject to taxes?  This means most retirement accounts will not pay a tax.  Only the Uber Wealthy.  They other reason they get to pay more is they have much more to lose.  Call it insurance, it might be a ripoff but so is all insurance.  Its a cash cow that does everything not to pay out.  And by much more to lose I mean the fact that they have the most material to lose but also that they live completely different lives from us.  They have a bubble you can't imagine.  Everything is done for them.  Finest schools with outstanding teacher to child ratios, servants in all aspects of life, don't have to worry about real punishment for breaking laws,  and the like.  I would take that for a tax raise.  No problem.  And if you pass these tax rate extensions we add $4 trillion MORE to the debt.  You the think so many said was a major issue?  So this goes up more than all the Bush War and Obama economic spending.  And once that's done they will say< "look how broke we are, gonna have to start slashing entitlements like Social Security and Medicare."  And suddenly the elderly will act shocked even though they voted overwhelming for the GOP.  Get what you asked for.  As for solvency, if you charged social security tax for all 1040 income.  You know that small amount on your check, it only gets charged up to $102,000 dollars.  Then it stops.  If we charged it to all income equally Social Security would be solvent for the next 150 years.  And thats WITH the government spending all the interest on the account each year.

Next will be unemployment.  They will as fast as possible cut unemployment for those over the original alloted time (won't matter much if they wait a year) saying it is too expensive and irresponsible.  This will happen after the Rich get another tax cut of course.  More people will default on their bill and mortgages, and after the GOP repeals the financial reform including Credit Card Predatory practices your interest % will raise immediately making it twice as hard to turn things around, not to mention harder to get a job and get off the unemployment.  Of course them spending is what churns the economic engine, but we aren't looking for logic here, this is the Republican Party.

Next is Health Care, now none of this has or will even go into effect for years (aside from not getting to drop you if you get really sick.  Hope you don't get something like Cancer.  You'll be lucky to have a dollar left if you beat it.).  Yet the GOP claims this is damaging to the economy.  Even with almost nothing in effect.  But apparently it is the reason the Corporations are hanging on to their coffers instead of hiring more workers in the face of decline productivity increases due to work overload.  Then again, maybe they are just waiting for Capital Gains tax cuts to make up for the losses of hiring workers to make conditions livable and helping the huddled masses get off the ground.  Remember, you mean nothing but the CEO who oversaw a massive loss of revenue for the company gets a $50 million bonus for their good work.  This won't be overturned but they will send at least one vote to the President to force a veto to help run on for the next election.

Next will be legal and tort reforms.  This is to reduce the ability of the average citizen to sue a business or professional for not doing their job or for violating the terms of a contract.  So like if your doctor amputated the wrong leg, or if the Debt Resolution company took a fee but never rendered services.  These things would be hard to sue over to make sure more responsibility by corporations is not taken, because this kind of regulation hurts businesses.  According to the GOP you should find every obstacle  in the world to emerging from a bad decision.  But if a business makes bad decisions or is unethical, they should be able to file Bankruptcy, keep your money and start a new business.  This is GOP responsibility.

Overall I think very little will happen.  The whole works will be frozen but this still means good things for business and with the GOP on all chairmanships they will just muck up the works to slow down regulations and keep tax cuts.  The economy will improve because that happens over time anyway and we will end up with a GOP House (gaining a few more seats) a firm Democratic Senate (around 57, 60 with the independents) and a reelected Obama.  Well, let's see how close I get.

They are calling House control to the Republicans

Unfortunately the media is calling the races for the House of Representatives for the GOP, not sure about who will take the Senate.  I still at this point cannot fathom how so many people after two years of Democrat control they have done so poorly (control includes having the President so they don't get vetoed.)  Well, I haven't heard a single intelligent argument.  And if its true that EXTENDING not enacting the Bush cuts for the wealthy will spur the economy.  But they are getting that money back now.  So they aren't spending it now?  Because they knew the cuts would expire so rather than behave normally they are hoarding it until Republicans get control?  Then that means that corporations have complete control of the country.  Think about that for a second.  That means the Republicans are bought, sold and paid for.

That means declining wages and deteriorating working conditions.  And that also means that your boss is now also your leader.  If you work corporate and you have a CEO, think how much more they pay themselves.  They are your leader.  How long before they tell you how to live?

But the Republicans look to be getting control so all I can do is hope for the best.  They can't repeal anything major since Obama would veto and they don't have the Senate votes needed.  So healthcare will go into effect in a much bigger way, enough time to vindicate the Democratic agenda over the Republican agenda.  So essentially nothing will happen for about two years unless it is really bland and completely middle of the road.  That likely won't help the Republican cause and if things do pick up in the economy Obama will get credit.

It does like Colorado is still somewhat sane.  Tancredo has lost and Bennett is ahead.  Let's hope he hangs on.  And thank goodness the conception amendment died.  Really?  Give personhood to a single celled zygote?  Sorry, no functioning brain, no person.  After that, we can talk.

Electoral College (Why?)

I was just recently trading barbs with a conservative friend of mine, and we always have a good time since our politics are completely opposite but we know how to be impassioned without getting upset.  Anyway we started talking about the Electoral College which I believe is completely antiquated and serves no purpose anymore.  My friend tended to agree, and it seems to have the opposite effect of why so many defendants argue for its survival.

Now, I usually am in favor of defending the little guy.  Probably because I am short and not that athletic and the tall burly guys tend to get their way.  Being for the little guy I always want to be sure people are up to speed so here is a short breakdown of how the Electoral College works.  So we all vote, and each state eventually declares a winner for the state based on popular vote.  The "winner" then gets his electors (which in a state equal the number of representatives + 2 votes for the Senators.  The Reps and Senators of the state themselves don't vote, but that is how they determine how many electors a state gets.  E.g. Wyoming gets 3 votes (1 Rep + 2 Senators)  and the District of Columbia gets 3.)  This totals 538 Electors (435 Reps, 100 Senators, 3 votes for D.C.) and a majority or 270 is paydirt.  Get 270 and you are President of the United States.  These electors are for each party.  That is each contestant on the ballot gets there own electors who get to place votes if there candidate wins.  They don't HAVE to vote for their guy/girl but they usually do.  A few states actually parcel out electors based on proportion of vote, but only a few.

So that is essentially how it goes.  You win the popular vote of a state, so your chosen electors are the ones that cast the electoral votes for that state, most or all will vote for you (that is why you chose them) and if you get 270 total you win.

The idea for this, is representation.  This way a state gets fair Representation in the election.  And this idea worked early on as you had to win most states to get the election but that isn't the case any more.  Technically you could win California, New York, Texas and 8 others and take the election.  Seriously.  You could win 11 States out of 50 and win the Election for President.  It would be hard to get those 11 but you can win well less then half the States and take it.  That isn't good Representation.  You can ignore a chunk of States in the Rocky Mountain region and not suffer that much as long as you get the coasts and a little of the South.  That is why I would like to see the system abolished.

In California you get a whopping  55 votes.  That is most of the Rockies right there.  Popular vote would be better now.  Why?  California votes around 55% Democratic lately.  Just over half.  But you get all the Electoral Votes.  You could say apportion out the Electoral votes by State % but that would lead to completely ignoring the Poor.  But if you had the Popular vote California would be a toss up.  It would greatly Reduce the power of the Large States.  Now dominating a small State would still yield big dividends.  Lets say you get the Non-Urban Areas of California and the majority of sparce populated States and now you have as Much as the Urban Vote getter.  More equal Representation.  Now you have to pay attention to everyone and come up with some serious ideas that lead to overall help or growth for the Nation.  You couldn't just dismiss areas anymore.  And yes if you got almost all the high population Urban Areas you would win but how is that possible?  With lots of wealthy and lots of poor you split the vote right there.  Look at California's district results map.  Republicans look a whole lot more popular.

I know there were some other reasons for its existence but most seem outdated.  There is no fear of Tyranny, with all the bickering your opponents would oust you quick as can be.  They love an opening.  Dems or Repubs.  And I don't understand a fear of Mandate either.  A President gets most of the Responsibility of his time in office, good or bad.  Jobs are great?  You were a good one.  Economy sucked?  You were a crappy one.  Money is our God in this nation whether you like it or not.  EVERYTHING is dictated by funds.  You can separate yourself from it if you wish but it doesn't change the power of money.  Money for you, against you, hating you, or loving you, it will sway opinions and controls our existence on the planet.  So remove a portion of that power and make Parties less significant.  Make a President appeal to the people because he is the President of America. State sovereignty doesn't matter there.  And it shouldn't.  The President represents the People to the world.  The Senators and the House are your State Representation to the Nation.  Make it how it should be.  I would be willing to trade the 17th Amendment for it.